Ammunition Market 2030: How Europe is Shaping the Future of Defense

The global ammunition market was valued at approximately USD 68.57 billion in 2023 and is expected to experience a decline at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -11.3% from 2024 to 2030. This decline is largely attributed to factors such as shifting global security dynamics and changing defense priorities. However, the rise in terrorist activities and ongoing geopolitical hostilities around the world is expected to drive increased procurement of defense equipment by major military forces, which could counterbalance some of the downturn and provide support to the market over the forecast period.

Additionally, the growing popularity of sports and recreational shooting, which involve the use of rifles and pistols, is anticipated to lead to a higher demand for small-caliber ammunition. This trend is expected to persist throughout the forecast period, further boosting ammunition sales, particularly in the civilian market. Technological innovations in ammunition production, including the development of lighter, polymer-based bullets, are also expected to contribute positively to the overall market by improving performance and reducing costs.

In the United States, significant investments in defense and military upgrades by the federal government are likely to bolster the growth of the ammunition sector. This includes procurement by military forces, law enforcement agencies, and federal agencies such as the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Additionally, the growing popularity of online sales platforms for ammunition is expected to expand market access and distribution, which will further support the growth of the industry, particularly in the U.S. market.

Gather more insights about the market drivers, restrains and growth of the Global Ammunition Market

Regional Insights

The North America ammunition market ranked as the second-largest market in 2023, accounting for approximately 13.03% of the total revenue. The market in this region is expected to continue growing due to the increasing threat of terrorism, which has raised concerns about security and defense. Additionally, the relatively lenient gun laws in the U.S. are likely to drive higher consumption of ammunition. The expansion of sports and hunting activities is also anticipated to play a significant role in boosting the demand for ammunition in the region.

U.S. Ammunition Market Trends

In the United States, the ammunition market has experienced substantial growth in recent years, fueled by heightened demand from hunters, sport shooters, and gun enthusiasts. Furthermore, law enforcement agencies have been upgrading their weaponry, contributing to increased ammunition needs. The U.S. government’s rising defense expenditure, coupled with relatively flexible gun laws, is expected to have a positive effect on the industry’s continued growth.

The Canadian ammunition market, while fluctuating in the past, is expected to see faster growth during the forecast period. This growth is driven by increased military operations, particularly in light of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Moreover, rising government defense spending, which is influenced by global security concerns such as terrorism and geopolitical instability, is anticipated to benefit the ammunition market in Canada.

Europe Ammunition Market Trends

In 2023, Europe held a dominant share of 71.33% of the global ammunition market revenue. The region’s ammunition market is shaped by several factors, including strict government regulations on firearm possession, the supply of firearms across European Union markets, and efforts to curb illegal arms trafficking. Europe's defense sector also faces challenges due to the refugee crisis, particularly from the Middle East and Syria, as well as the threat of terrorism. These factors are expected to drive continued growth in the ammunition market in Europe over the forecast period.

Russia Ammunition Market

The ammunition market in Russia is expanding due to the ongoing war with Ukraine and rising military tensions. According to Bloomberg, Russia has significantly increased its defense budget by 43%, planning to invest even more in its military in the coming years. As Russia depletes its ammunition stockpiles due to the ongoing conflict, it is ramping up production of both weapons and ammunition to maintain its military advantage. This surge in production is expected to drive a significant demand for ammunition in the country.

In Germany, there is a high demand for various types of firearms, including pistols, rifles, revolvers, shotguns, and combination guns, which are used in activities such as hunting, sport shooting, and fishing. The growing popularity of these activities, coupled with favorable hunting conditions in the country, is expected to drive demand for small and medium-caliber ammunition.

Asia Pacific Ammunition Market Trends

The Asia Pacific ammunition market is growing due to increasing geopolitical disputes and the rising threat of terrorism, which have created a heightened demand for defense-related products in the region. Countries such as China and India are significantly investing in the modernization of their armed forces to address security challenges and combat rising crime rates. These efforts are expected to drive substantial demand for ammunition over the forecast period.

China Ammunition Market

In China, the ammunition market is set to see notable progress driven by intensified geopolitical competition, especially with the United States. The ongoing technological race between the two superpowers is likely to spur the development of advanced weapon systems, which, in turn, will lead to increased demand for specialized ammunition. As China seeks to strengthen its military capabilities, these advancements are expected to positively impact the ammunition market.

India Ammunition Market

India's ammunition market is poised for significant growth due to recent reforms in the defense sector, which have opened up the market to private manufacturers. These reforms are creating greater opportunities for both domestic and global arms manufacturers to set up production facilities in India, catering not only to the Indian market but also to global markets. This shift is expected to support substantial growth in the Indian ammunition sector.

Central & South America Ammunition Market Trends

The ammunition market in Central and South America is heavily reliant on imports from the United States for both military and civilian use. In recent years, however, the region has emerged as a new producer of arms and ammunition. Gun-related crimes, particularly in countries like Brazil, have been on the rise, largely due to relaxed gun laws and societal factors. These conditions are expected to drive increased demand for ammunition in the region over the forecast period.

Middle East & Africa Ammunition Market Trends

The Middle East & Africa ammunition market is growing due to a rise in arms transfers, driven by increasing demand in the region. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has been one of the world’s largest arms importers, ranking second in the 2018-2022 period. Economic growth in several countries, coupled with heavy investments in defense industries, is also contributing to the growth of the ammunition market in the region. This growth is further fueled by rising cross-border threats and regional conflicts, which are increasing the demand for both arms and ammunition.

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Key Ammunition Company Insights

Some of the key players operating in the market include Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics Corporation.

• Northrop Grumman multinational aerospace and defense technology company, engaged in designing and manufacturing of various products for aeronautics, space, cyberspace, and defense industries. The company has approximately 100000 employees and about 550 facilities which are spread across 25 countries globally.
• General Dynamics Corporation was incorporated in 1952 and is headquartered in Virginia, U.S. The company consists of 10 business units, which are organized into four operating segments, namely Aerospace, Marine Systems, Combat Systems, and Technologies. With approximately 50 airport sites throughout North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, it offers MRO, FBO, and aircraft management services. It also offers customized solutions for narrow-body and wide-body aircraft.  

Jageman Stamping Co. and Hornady Manufacturing Company, Inc. are some of the emerging market participants. 

• Jageman Stamping Co. is a leading producer of progressive, deep-drawn, and fine blanked stampings based in the U.S. The company develops unique manufacturing solutions for various industries, including automotive, electrical, consumer products, industrial, and home hardware.
• Hornady Manufacturing Company, Inc. U.S. based manufacturer of bullets, ammunition, and muzzleloading equipment. The company provides its products in the domestic and international markets.

Key Ammunition Companies:

The following are the leading companies in the ammunition market. These companies collectively hold the largest market share and dictate industry trends.

• Northrop Grumman Corporation
• FN Herstal
• Olin Corporation
• General Dynamics Corporation
• BAE Systems, Inc.
• Rheinmetall Defense
• Nexter KNDS Group
• Hanwha Corporation
• ST Engineering
• Remington Arms Company LLC
• Vista Outdoor Operations LLC

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